Public prototype · Housing Scenario Lab v0.2
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Housing Scenario Lab · adaptive model

Change the housing model—and the calculator changes with it.

Choose what happens to the property, who owns the housing, how the project is delivered and whether shared-space/cohousing design is part of the program. The Lab changes the relevant costs and the definition of feasibility.

New constructionRenovation / adaptive reuseRentalIndividual ownershipCo-opBaugemeinschaft
Model configuration

What kind of housing project is this?

Property & program

What are we acquiring or creating?

New construction

What does it cost to build?

Delivery structure

Who performs the development role?

Development financing

How long is capital tied up?

Ongoing property costs

Taxes should not disappear after construction.

Choose either a known annual tax estimate or model taxes from assessed value and a tax-code-area rate. For Oregon, do not assume taxes equal market value × one universal rate.

Rental operations & valuation

Does property income support the development cost?

Quick tests
Total project cost—
Cost / home—
Result—
Result—
Result—
Property tax—
Development journey

Where does this model get constrained?

Calculating…

The final stage changes with the ownership model: rental economics, household affordability, or cooperative carrying costs.

Cost anatomy

What drives the project basis?

Ongoing cost anatomy

What must be paid after occupancy?

Evidence status

What do we know versus assume?

Evidence-backed anchorsWatson asking price/program, LaScala calibration, current Beaverton project sample, several fee/SDC and Portland-market benchmarks.
Still provisionalCurrent small-project hard costs, construction financing, complete Watson fee stack, model-specific developer fees/facilitation costs, and future property tax after redevelopment.
Model-specific interpretationRental projects are tested through NOI and stabilized value. Ownership and co-op projects are tested through household/member capital and monthly affordability.
Journey & Definitions

One development journey, several ways to own and finance the outcome.

The physical work of controlling property, designing, obtaining approvals, financing and constructing still exists across models. What changes is who bears risk, which costs matter most and what “feasible” means at the end.

How the adaptive model works

Four choices configure the calculator.

Physical pathway changes the cost engine: new construction, renovation/conversion or purchase of existing housing. Ownership changes the end test: rental investment, individual ownership or cooperative carrying cost. Delivery model changes who performs the development role. Community design changes the private/common-space program.

This matters: “cohousing,” “co-op,” “Baugemeinschaft” and “renovation” are not mutually exclusive categories. A project could be a renovated building, developed by a Baugemeinschaft, operated as a cooperative, with cohousing-style shared space.
Three feasibility tests

The output changes by model

Rental: Can NOI support the private development cost?

Individual ownership: Can a household finance its share and carry the monthly cost?

Co-op: Can member equity plus cooperative debt cover the project while keeping carrying charges affordable?

Missing Middle Housing Fund framework

Four families of housing-production solutions.

Products · Design · Assembly

Building types, unit layouts, shared-space design, standardized plans, modular/panelized methods, materials, parking and repeatable construction systems.

Financing · Funding

Equity, construction debt, permanent mortgages, guarantees, public subsidy, member equity, patient capital and predevelopment funding.

Regulations · Policy

Zoning, height, setbacks, parking, design review, permits, SDCs, infrastructure requirements, tax policy and incentives.

Labor · Workforce · Human Capital

Contractors, trades, architects, engineers, developers, lenders, facilitators, public staff and specialized project-management expertise.

The development journey

Six stages—regardless of the ownership model.

1

Site & property readiness

Land readiness + site control

Can the project control a usable property at a supportable price?

  • Parcel assembly and ownership
  • Acquisition price and existing debt
  • Environmental conditions
  • Easements, utilities and access
  • Existing-building condition for renovation
2

Program, design & assembly

Products · Design · Assembly

What housing product is actually being created or preserved?

  • Private unit sizes
  • Common/cohousing space
  • New construction versus rehabilitation
  • Construction system and complexity
  • Efficiency and parking
3

Entitlement, permits & infrastructure

Regulations · Policy

What public rules, charges, code upgrades and approvals shape the project?

  • Zoning and land use
  • Design/building review
  • SDCs and excise taxes
  • Utility/frontage work
  • Renovation-triggered code upgrades
4

Capital & ownership structure

Financing · Funding

Who supplies capital and who bears the development risk?

  • Developer or member equity
  • Construction debt
  • Permanent mortgage / co-op debt
  • Public or philanthropic support
  • Baugemeinschaft member commitments
5

Construction / rehabilitation capacity

Labor · Workforce · Human Capital

Can the work actually be delivered?

  • General contractor and trades
  • Rehabilitation uncertainty
  • Developer or group-management capacity
  • Materials and scheduling
  • Resident-group facilitation where applicable
6

Occupancy, ownership & operations

Market + household affordability

The final test depends on the model.

  • Rental: rents, vacancy, operating costs and value
  • Ownership: mortgage, taxes, insurance and maintenance
  • Co-op: member equity, cooperative debt, reserves and carrying charge
  • All models: can intended residents actually afford the outcome?
Property taxes

An ongoing cost, not a construction cost.

How the Lab treats taxes

Property tax is kept separate from construction cost. In a rental project it reduces NOI. In a co-op it becomes part of the cooperative carrying charge. In individual ownership it becomes part of the household's monthly housing cost.

For Oregon scenarios, the Lab allows a known annual tax estimate or an assessed-value calculation because taxes are based on assessed value, not simply the property's market price.

Oregon terms

RMV — Real Market Value: the assessor's estimate of market value.

MAV — Maximum Assessed Value: the constitutional taxable-value limit.

AV — Assessed Value: generally the lower of RMV or MAV and the value used to calculate taxes.

Changed Property Ratio: used when new improvements or other changed property are added to the tax roll. This is why redeveloping Watson cannot be modeled responsibly as “purchase price × a generic tax rate.”

Glossary

Terms behind the adaptive calculator.

Gross square feet (GSF)Total building area, including private homes plus halls, stairs, walls, mechanical areas and shared/common space.
Net-to-gross efficiencyThe share of gross residential building area that becomes private residential area.
Hard construction costDirect physical construction labor and materials.
Rehabilitation costDirect work required to repair, modernize or convert an existing building.
Soft costsArchitecture, engineering, consultants, legal, administration and other professional/non-physical project costs.
Development fee / marginCompensation or return associated with performing and bearing the development role. It may look different in conventional, nonprofit and resident-led structures.
SDCSystem Development Charge—a one-time development charge tied to added demand on infrastructure/services.
ContingencyA reserve for unforeseen work or estimating error; renovation generally carries greater hidden-condition risk.
Financing carryInterest and related cost while money is tied up before the completed project is producing stable income or ready for permanent financing.
Capital stackAll sources of project money: equity, debt and potentially public/philanthropic support.
NOINet operating income—property income after ordinary operating costs and property taxes/insurance in this model, before debt service and income taxes.
Capitalization rateRental-property market relationship between NOI and property value. Stabilized value = NOI ÷ cap rate in this simplified model.
Stabilized valueEstimated rental-property value after normal occupancy and operations.
Feasibility gapRental stabilized value minus private development cost. A negative number means cost exceeds modeled value.
Break-even rentAverage rent required for rental value to equal modeled private development cost, holding other assumptions constant.
Carrying chargeIn a co-op, the recurring member payment needed to cover the cooperative mortgage, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, reserves and operations.
BaugemeinschaftA resident-led development group in which future occupants collectively take on much of the sponsor/developer role rather than simply buying from a speculative developer.
CohousingA community-design model combining private homes with intentionally shared common spaces and community facilities; it can use many different ownership structures.
Limited-equity co-opA cooperative ownership model that restricts resale gains to preserve affordability over time.
Property taxAn ongoing ownership/operating cost based on taxable assessed value and local taxing-district rates, not a one-time development fee.
Framework references: Thrive CDC Beaverton Housing Development Evidence Database and Housing Scenario Lab; Missing Middle Housing Fund framework; Oregon/DLCD housing-production barrier research; Washington County Assessment & Taxation guidance. This prototype is for exploration and education, not investment, lending, tax or legal advice.